CB does not disturb anything except retail loans

The Bank of Russia for five weeks before the end of the year reduces inflationary fears. According to the head controller Ignatiev, price increases in October and November and the final index stabilized at the end of the year may be less than the higher of the Central Bank recently forecast of 7%. In the long term 6-12 months inflation will again fall below 6%. A more serious threat to the financial stability of the Bank of Russia sees growth in unsecured consumer lending: the restrictions in this field can earn from next year.

Inflation for the year is likely to be below 7%, the head of the Central Bank Sergei Ignatiev, presenting to the State Duma a draft "Guidelines for the monetary policy for 2013-2015." A week ago, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for this year from 6% to 7%. "On November 14, the annual rate of increase in consumer prices was 6.5%, while in October and November, inflation stabilized. Overall, in 2012 the rate of inflation from December to December, according to my estimates range from 6.5% to 7%, "- said Mr. Ignatieff (quoted by" Interfax ").

According to him, in the medium term, the Russian financial authorities have a "good opportunity" to reduce annual inflation to less than 6%. "It is encouraging dynamics of money supply - M2. Ultimately, the long-term dynamics of the money supply has a determining influence on the rate of inflation, "- said the head of the Central Bank, adding that on November 1, the annual growth rate of M2 fell to 15.7% from 22.3% at January 1, 2012 year.

High oil prices allow Russia to maintain a positive balance of current account: the ten months it amounted to $ 79 billion against $ 80 billion for the same period last year. However, almost 80% of these funds immediately removed from the country. According to Sergei Ignatiev, the capital outflows in January-October was $ 61 billion versus $ 60 billion for the same period last year. Recall that in the last two months of 2011, before the parliamentary elections, outflows increased sharply, reaching for the year a record $ 80.5 billion this year, the Central Bank expects an outflow of $ 67 billion, the Ministry of Economy - $ 70 billion

Liquidity in the banking sector is maintained at a normal level, mainly due to the refinancing of the Central Bank, the head of the Bank of Russia. The only thing that is a concern, the regulator - the continued rapid growth of consumer loans, primarily unsecured. "Unsecured loans for the year increased by 60 percent, and we believe that the banks that are engaged in this, underestimate risks, and this can create problems," - said Sergey Ignatiev. Head of the regulator noted that consumer loans including mortgages and car loans grew by 40%. CB is going next year to introduce measures to limit the issuance of unsecured consumer loans. "In the coming weeks, we will take these decisions, they will take effect from the beginning of 2013" - warned the chairman of the Bank of Russia. According to Mr. Ignatieff, these measures "are not administrative." Apparently, it's about raising reserve requirements for unsecured retail loans, which the Central Bank previously proposed to introduce a March 1, 2013

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